Imagine that an earthquake as devastating as the one that shook Japan hit your area. Have you thought about the contributions made by the various people working in crisis management? At the federal level, different departments and organizations are able to institute measures to help ensure your safety. But are you aware of the scientific and technological programs put in place to foresee and mitigate the impact of such events?
One of the little known component organizations of Defence Research and Development Canada, the Centre for Security Science (CSS), manages S&T programs in public safety and security in partnership with federal departments and agencies, industry and others.
Created in 2006 as part of an agreement between Public Safety Canada and National Defence, CSS invests in S&T to improve Canada’s ability to prevent, prepare for, respond to and recover from terrorist or criminal acts, accidents and natural disasters that could potentially affect our safety and security.
Capable model
Living up to its role, CSS is working on an innovative model for risk assessment and for targeting S&T and other investments that maximizes the reach of multiple sources of information, including expertise from over 21 federal departments and agencies, compiled on various potential risk events.
Called the “Capability-Based Investment Model,” it seeks to identify the capabilities and associated gaps and to highlight where Canada may need to invest or act to prevent, prepare for and respond to risks and their consequences.
“To adequately examine a risk and the country’s or an organization’s ability to deal with it, it is important to collect and correlate data on not only threats, hazards and potential consequences in specific situations, but also to consider the range of capabilities held by different departments, agencies and other organizations,” said Alain Goudreau, head of risk assessment and capability integration for CSS.
Storytelling at play
How is it possible to identify the capabilities and needs of so many responsible departments and agencies, particularly given the diversity of potential risks: chemical, biological, radioactive, nuclear, explosive, not to mention natural or accidental events? Surprisingly, the starting point is to make up stories.
In fact, as part of its investment model, CSS has created a range of fictitious but plausible scenarios. These serve to examine capability objectives sought to deal with the state of preparedness and response and identify the gaps in S&T and other areas. But making up stories to pinpoint deficiencies and to help determine which program initiatives to finance requires its share of research and analysis.
The first phase of the CSS team’s risk assessment is primarily research. In cooperation with communities of practice and 11 networks of interdepartmental researchers and operators, CSS draws up a list of threats, hazards and emerging trends with the potential to affect the country that are then examined using a risk assessment methodology to determine those requiring priority. This is accomplished by taking the potential risk of, for example, a chemical product and placing it in a fictitious but plausible context. The team then contemplates the what, how, where, etc, such as dispersal of a chemical product in an urban environment. Each story, referred to as scenario vignette, is then studied to sort high-risk situations in terms of technical feasibility, likelihood and seriousness of potential consequences (victims, geographic reach, social disturbances, economic losses).
Full spectrum scenario
When a high-risk situation is identified, it is necessary to understand the roles of departments, agencies and others. Key stakeholders must identify how to prevent the situation from occurring or reoccurring and how to respond to any ensuing consequences. Situations deemed to have the highest risks are individually scrutinized over an augmented timeline – the full spectrum scenario – to understand the fictitious event’s full reach, from genesis up to potential medium- and long-term consequences, including response and recovery.
According to Goudreau, full spectrum scenarios are remarkably useful in the assessment process. “Because the event is generally made up of a series of horizontal steps – planning, preparation, execution and response – the responsibilities of the different stakeholders in dealing with the event are obviously shared. Full spectrum scenarios allow us to visualize not only the contributions and collaborations, but also any S&T and other capability needs that should be addressed to enhance performance effectiveness and cooperation amongst the key stakeholders.”
Enlightening symbiosis
Through the use of scenarios, CSS identifies and assesses the capability areas that need improvement. The centre groups these areas together, analyzes them through modeling and other techniques and considers the options to address the priority gaps, taking into account current priorities and available financial resources. This method allows for better contextualization and helps to justify which actions are prioritized, particularly from a program investment standpoint.
By creating a model that focuses on harmonizing all available data, information and expertise on a given risk issue, the CSS team has found a way to be better informed, more effective and better coordinated, all in the aim of ensuring the safety and security of Canadians.