Introduction
One hundred years ago, the Royal Canadian Air Force emerged out of the First World War and the industrial age. While the nature of war has remained constant over millennia, it was the ability to produce weapons like the submarine, the tank and the airplane in significant numbers that irrevocably changed its character. These innovations made war possible at a speed and scale that has only increased as other domains have been added including space, cyber and information. The potential for conflict now transcends the physical, and its reach and speed largely negate any privilege Canada once had due to its geography.
Today, the RCAF finds itself at the beginning of a transition that is as significant as its founding. With the global security situation continuing to deteriorate and the release of Strong, Secure and Engaged (SSE) in 2017, NORAD Modernization in 2022 and most recently, Our North, Strong and Free (ONSF), the RCAF now finds itself the beneficiary of the largest investment in military air and space power in Canada since WW2. As the current commander, LGen Eric Kenney has noted, there are “several gaps in the Air Force’s current capability” and this investment is required to address those gaps. RCAF modernization seeks to build an air and space force that ensures it is a credible partner to allies and a deterrent to potential aggressors.
The Opportunities
The 4th Industrial Revolution (4IR), commonly referred to as the digital age, is here. As identified in the RCAF Strategy, disruptive technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), Machine Learning (ML), Cloud Computing, Sensor Fusion and Quantum Technology are dramatically changing the character of war. The digital age allows for the collection, analysis and use of information globally and at the speed of light which, in turn, allows the RCAF to deliver an economy of effort and precision in how it detects, deters and, if necessary, defends against potential adversaries at home and abroad. Working in close partnership with the CAF and key allies, data integration and the information dominance it delivers is how the RCAF will achieve decision superiority in the future which, in turn, will give it the operational advantage it seeks.
The remoteness and vastness of the Arctic and Canada’s Northern Approaches, emerging weapons such as hypersonic missiles, the Anti-Access / Area Denial (A2AD) systems fielded by potential adversaries and the proliferation of remotely piloted or autonomously operated systems create an operating environment that is vast, highly dynamic, and lethal. Traditional Command and Control methods and techniques are not fit for task in this modern battlespace; it does little to have the most capable fighter aircraft in the world in the right place at the wrong time.
As a result, a major component of RCAF modernization is its ability to network disparate and dispersed all domain sensors and platforms at distance while leveraging AI, ML, Sensor Fusion and Quantum to deliver options to commanders at the speed of relevance. Current and future programs will deliver data intensive platforms like the F-35, MQ-9B, P-8 and the Defence Enhanced Surveillance from Space Project (DESSP) while NORAD Modernization has added additional sensors such as Over The Horizon Radars (OTHR), enhanced communications and data link capabilities and, most importantly, the Future Combined Air Operations Centre (CAOC) and Cloud Based Command and Control (CBC2). This approach will impact all RCAF and CAF missions. Fixed Wing Search and Rescue (FWSAR) and the Cormorant Mid Life Upgrade (CMLU) projects will add very capable sensors to the SAR platforms, including cell phone detection systems that permit messaging via SMS text, along with a cloud-based mission management system that will enhance command and control of the SAR mission, reducing the time spent in search operations and delivering better service to Canadians.
The recently released ONSF, and its focus on Canada’s North, adds an Airborne Early Warning (AEW) capability, Integrated Air and Missile Defence (IAMD) and the next Tactical Aviation Capability Set (nTACS). Embedded within all are the critical enablers of Electro-Magnetic Spectrum Operations (EMSO), which includes electromagnetic warfare (EW), electromagnetic spectrum management (ESM), and cyber capabilities. If data is now the key integrating function across the Joint / Allied operating environment, then the electromagnetic spectrum is how it is generated and used. Exploiting it, while denying it to the adversary, has become a critical capability in the increasingly dynamic battlespace. Air superiority, or superiority in any other domain, is now heavily reliant on the ability to achieve Electro-Magnetic Spectrum (EMS) superiority and Cyber Mission Assurance (CMA).
The relevant policy statements also increase investment in infrastructure, including RCAF Wings, Deployed Operating Bases (DOB) and Forward Operating Locations (FOL) and emphasize the critical importance of digitalization and being able to conduct what the CAF refers to as Pan Domain Command and Control (PDC2). Together they have formalized the ways in which the RCAF transforms from an industrial-age air force into a digital-age air and space force. What remains to be seen is whether the means are sufficient for the task at hand.
The Challenges
Born out of innovation at the beginning of the last century, the RCAF’s foundation is rooted in creativity and adaptability.The critical path is its capacity for change, and that is reliant on its most important asset, its people. As noted in 1917 with the above quote by Manfred von Richtofen, aka the Red Baron, technology alone will not deliver operational advantage without the person operating it, supporting it, or commanding it.
Unfortunately, the RCAF finds itself 2,000 people short. It should be noted that neither NORAD Mod nor ONSF increased the establishment of the RCAF, yet added capabilities such as nine CC-330 Husky replacing five CC150 Polaris, additional sensors such as OTHR and an AEW fleet while necessitating the strengthening of key enablers such as such as digitalization and Electromagnetic Warfare (EW). As a result, the real shortage is more than 2,000 people, and it will not be able to achieve its modernization objectives without an increase in the RCAF establishment. Concurrently, the increasing operational demands of today will make it more difficult to achieve modernization tomorrow without an immediate and significant growth in personnel coming into the CAF and RCAF. The MQ-9B squadron of 2028 does not exist today, and the people to operate and sustain it have either not yet been recruited or are currently embedded in other fleets.
Equally pressing for the RCAF is the fact that recruiting new Aviators will not replace the experience gap associated with those 2,000+ people. This experience is vital to staffing projects, standing up new capabilities and managing the complexities of modernization. Achieving desired timelines and outcomes will likely require additional partnership with industry or outsourcing in areas such as maintenance, training delivery and digitalization to allow the RCAF to focus on core air and space power capabilities.
The RCAF will also need to determine what occupations and structure are best suited to a digital RCAF. The introduction of multiple data-intensive platforms and capabilities will mandate enhanced or new skill sets that have yet to be identified and implemented to ensure the data is processed, analyzed, and distributed to deliver operational advantage while adopting to societal change and ensuring an inclusive culture. Space, and its growing importance, is a growth industry that requires skill sets not delivered in current RCAF training establishments. RCAF establishments will need to embrace advanced synthetic capabilities that enable both development and testing as well as training in the digital age. Some, such as the Canadian Forces School of Aerospace Technology and Engineering (CFSATE), rely on retired analog aircraft to teach RCAF technicians how to maintain what will be a digital air force. Even professional development schools, such as the Air Command Academy, will need to implement and teach digital literacy as a key competency of the modern profession of arms. The key challenge in delivering digital transformation lies in culture and people, not in technology.
If the people issues represent a challenge for the RCAF, the consequences of not delivering on the program of record represent both a challenge and a risk. First, there is the issue of decreasing operational relevance that these new capabilities are essential to address. In many areas, the RCAF is failing to keep pace with allies and potential adversaries and as it modernizes, it will need to do so in such a way that ensures continuous modernization. This is not a one-time event. Cooperative development programs with industry and allies, as well as increased and predictable R&D funding in areas such as semi-autonomous and autonomous systems, hypersonic and cruise missile defence within a modernized IAMD framework and alternate power sources for Canada’s remote areas, such as Small Modular Reactors (SMR), are some of the ways and means by which the RCAF must continue to modernize. It can and must be a goal to leverage the investment in the RCAF and CAF to deepen relations with the U.S. and to seek partnership in AUKUS Pillar 2. Those efforts should directly shape the defence policy review in four years, and every four years thereafter as stated in ONSF, to ensure the RCAF remains operationally relevant.
Secondly, and equally important, is the issue of defence inflation. Global instability and insecurity have created supply and demand pressures that have pushed inflation to 17 per cent or higher across the defence sector. That means a four-year delay could double the cost; the RCAF cannot afford any delays. It is also sustaining systems that are becoming more expensive due to the same inflationary pressures. Stable, predictable funding moving forward will be as important to planners in DND as it will be to the defence industry. The rate of technological change and lead times for some military capabilities, such as air to air weapons, make the introduction of continuous capability sustainment a necessity. It is likely that RCAF readiness, regardless of how much is spent on capital acquisition, will continue to erode without predictable increases in sustainment funding.
Conclusion
The history of warfare tells us that the advantage goes to those who hold the high ground. The unique ability of air and space power to dominate that high ground has transformed warfare over the last century. The emergence of disruptive technologies like AI, ML, Sensor Fusion, Quantum and Cloud Computing, and the enhancements they deliver to C2, are once again transforming warfare. The capabilities the RCAF is taking delivery of, and those it will develop as it transitions to a data-enabled digital force, will ensure it remains relevant to Canadians and the defence of this nation for the foreseeable future.
Yet modernization is not without its challenges and the two identified here, people and funding, are not in the exclusive control of the RCAF. Ensuring modernization happens will require the deliberate and focused support of the broader CAF / DND enterprise, as well as a long-term commitment by the Government of Canada. The changing character of conflict in an increasingly interdependent and interconnected world means that the RCAF needs sustained investment in both people and funding if it is going to continue to deter, detect and, if required, defeat any threats to Canada at home and abroad in close partnership with allies. The RCAF now has the ways to ensure its motto “Sic Ictur Ad Astra” (Such is the Pathway to the Stars), is as relevant tomorrow as it was in 1924. What remains to be seen is what the pathway looks like.